AI Match Analysis & Predictions
Santos
Fortaleza EC
The analysis points towards a home win for Santos, but with several caveats. The market odds heavily favor Santos at 1.759, yet their recent form (LWLDD) does not fully support such confidence. They are currently 16th in the league, just outside the relegation zone, and have struggled for consistency. [24, 25] Conversely, 18th-placed Fortaleza has a better record in the last five games (WLLWL) and holds a historical advantage, winning five of the last eleven encounters compared to Santos' two. [5] The last match between them was a high-scoring 3-2 win for Santos. [5, 7] The odds for 'Both Teams to Score' are almost identical for 'Yes' and 'No' (1.84 vs 1.864), suggesting uncertainty in the market. However, given the defensive frailties of both teams and the context of their last meeting, goals from both sides seem probable. Ultimately, playing at home in such a critical match for their league survival should provide Santos with the necessary motivation to overcome their poor form and secure a vital, albeit narrow, win.
Key Betting Insights
Value Bets
- Fortaleza EC Double Chance (2x) at 2.089. Santos has poor recent form and Fortaleza has a strong head-to-head record, making these odds attractive for the away side to avoid defeat.
- Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.84. Head-to-head matches between these sides often feature goals, with the last meeting ending 3-2. The odds are nearly even, presenting good value for a repeat of goals from both sides.
Risky Bets
- Correct Score of 2-1 at 8.0. While plausible, predicting the exact score is always high-risk, high-reward.
- Fortaleza EC to win at 4.885. Despite their better head-to-head record, Fortaleza's overall poor form and struggles away from home make this a risky proposition.
Santos comes into this match in a precarious league position, currently sitting 16th in the Serie A table. [24, 25] Their recent form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last five matches (LWLDD). At home, their form is also very poor. [19] Despite their struggles, they are considered the favorites by the bookmakers for this encounter, likely due to their home advantage.
Tactical Notes
Santos will need to improve their defensive solidity, having conceded in most of their recent games. Offensively, they have shown they can score, as seen in their recent 3-2 victory over Fortaleza. [5, 7] Expect them to try and control possession at home and build attacks, though they have struggled for goals, with 8 of their last 10 matches ending with under 2.5 goals. [9]
Key Players
Injuries
Fortaleza EC is currently in the relegation zone, sitting 18th in the league standings. [24, 25] Their overall form is very poor, though they have secured two wins in their last five outings (WLLWL), which is slightly better than their opponents. Historically, Fortaleza has had the upper hand in this fixture, with 5 wins to Santos' 3 in their last 15 meetings. [7] They have also remained unbeaten in their last two away league matches against Santos. [12]
Tactical Notes
Fortaleza has struggled to score goals recently, netting just four times in their last six matches. [12] Defensively, they have been vulnerable. Manager Juan Pablo Vojvoda often utilizes a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation. [33] Given their troubles on the road and Santos' need for a win, Fortaleza may adopt a more cautious, counter-attacking approach, looking to exploit any defensive lapses from the home side.