AI Match Analysis & Predictions

Spain. La LigaSaturday, February 21, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC13:00
REA

Real Sociedad

Win Probability: 63%
Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC
2-0
AI Prediction
Real Sociedad Win
High confidence
REA

Real Oviedo

Win Probability: 15%
Head-to-Head Statistics
Real Sociedad Wins
3
Draws
1
Real Oviedo Wins
2
Last Meeting2025-08-30
Score1-0
ResultReal Sociedad Win
Predictions
Match ResultReal Sociedad Win
High1.586
Correct Score2-0
Medium6.5
Both Teams To ScoreNo
Medium1.708
Total GoalsUnder 2.5 Goals
Medium1.892
AI Match Analysis

This La Liga encounter presents a classic top-versus-bottom clash. Real Sociedad, sitting comfortably in the top half, has demonstrated strong form, particularly at their home ground, the Reale Arena. [28, 10] Their recent performances, barring a predictable defeat to Real Madrid, have solidified their position as a formidable opponent. However, their attacking prowess will be tested as they are without the creative force of Takefusa Kubo and the suspended Brais Méndez. [29] Mikel Oyarzabal will be expected to shoulder the goal-scoring responsibility. On the other side, Real Oviedo finds themselves in a dire relegation battle. [33] Their form is poor, and they have been particularly goal-shy throughout the season, a major factor in their lowly league position. [37] Their task is made even more difficult by the suspension of key midfielder Santiago Colombatto, which will disrupt their defensive structure. [31] While they did secure a crucial 1-0 win over Sociedad earlier in the season, that result was at home, and repeating the feat on the road seems unlikely given their current struggles. [8, 10] The head-to-head record is somewhat sparse in recent years, but Sociedad has had the better of the encounters. [8] The betting markets heavily favor a home victory, and our analysis aligns with this sentiment. The key question is not whether Sociedad will win, but by what margin. Given Sociedad's offensive absences and Oviedo's likely defensive posture, a high-scoring affair is not anticipated. A controlled performance from Real Sociedad, leading to a victory without conceding, appears to be the most probable outcome.

Key Betting Insights

Value Bets
  • Real Sociedad to win and Under 3.5 goals. The odds for a straight home win are short, but combining it with a lower goal total offers better value. Sociedad is missing key attackers, and Oviedo struggles to score, pointing towards a comfortable but not high-scoring victory for the hosts.
Risky Bets
  • Correct Score of 1-0 to Real Sociedad. While this is the most likely scoreline according to some prediction models, correct score betting is inherently risky. [2] Oviedo has been defensively resilient at times, and a single goal might be all that separates the sides.
Real Sociedad Overview

Real Sociedad comes into this match in solid form, positioned 8th in the La Liga table. [28, 32] Despite a recent 4-1 loss to league leaders Real Madrid, their overall performance has been strong, including wins in the Copa del Rey. [11] They have a good home record and are considered strong favorites, with predictive models giving them around a 60% chance of winning this encounter. [2] However, they will be without some key creative players due to injury and suspension, which could impact their attacking flair.

Tactical Notes

Under manager Pellegrino Matarazzo, Real Sociedad has become one of the most in-form sides in the league. [29] They play an attacking style of football, which is reflected in the fact that 80% of their last 10 home games have seen over 2.5 goals. [3] Despite their offensive intent, they will have to adjust their lineup due to the absence of key attackers like Takefusa Kubo and Brais Méndez. This might lead to a more controlled approach, relying on the goal-scoring abilities of Mikel Oyarzabal, the team's top scorer. [32]

Key Players

Mikel Oyarzabal

Injuries

Takefusa KuboOut until early March (hamstring)
Unai MarreroOut until mid-March (broken cheekbone)
Arsen ZakharyanOut (calf injury)
Luka SučićDoubtful (hamstring)
Ander BarrenetxeaDoubtful (thigh injury)
Real Oviedo Overview

Real Oviedo is in a precarious position, sitting 20th in the La Liga table and facing a serious relegation battle. [10, 33] Their form has been poor, with the provided data showing three losses in their last five matches. They have struggled offensively all season, having scored the fewest goals in the league. [33, 37] Their recent win against Girona was a much-needed boost, but they face a significant challenge against a top-half team away from home. Their struggles are reflected in their low win probability, estimated at around 17%. [2]

Tactical Notes

Real Oviedo will likely adopt a defensive and conservative approach, aiming to frustrate Real Sociedad and hit on the counter-attack. The absence of starting midfielder Santiago Colombatto due to suspension is a significant blow to their midfield stability. [31] Much of their attacking hope will rest on Federico Viñas, their top scorer. [37] Given their poor away record and difficulty in scoring goals, their primary focus will be on maintaining a compact defensive shape to try and secure a point.

Key Players

Federico Viñas

Injuries

David CostasOut (muscle injury)
Ovie EjariaOut (muscle injury)
R. AlhassaneOut until late February (thigh injury)
Eric BaillyDoubtful
Last 5 Matches - Real Sociedad
14
LReal Madrid
1-42026-02-14
11
WAthletic Bilbao
1-02026-02-11
07
WElche
3-12026-02-07
04
WDeportivo Alaves
3-22026-02-04
01
DAthletic Bilbao
1-12026-02-01
Last 5 Matches - Real Oviedo
15
LAthletic Bilbao
1-22026-02-15
31
WGirona
1-02026-01-31
25
LBarcelona
0-32026-01-25
17
LOsasuna
2-32026-01-17
10
DReal Betis
1-12026-01-10

We use cookies

We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website.