AI Match Analysis & Predictions

North American. Leagues CupWednesday, July 30, 2025 at 12:00 AM UTC00:00
NEW

New York City

Win Probability: 69%
Wednesday, July 30, 2025 at 12:00 AM UTC
2-1
AI Prediction
New York City Win
High confidence
PUE

Puebla

Win Probability: 15%
Head-to-Head Statistics
New York City Wins
N/A
Draws
N/A
Puebla Wins
N/A
Last Meeting
ScoreN/A
ResultN/A
Predictions
Bet on
1xBet
Match ResultNew York City Win
High1.45
Correct Score2-1
Low7.0
Both Teams To ScoreYes
Medium1.65
Total GoalsOver 2.5 Goals
High1.46
AI Match Analysis

This analysis points towards a home victory for New York City FC, a conclusion heavily supported by the market odds and the current form of both teams. NYCFC, despite a mixed bag of recent results in MLS, are a formidable opponent at home. Their recent matches have included both high-scoring wins and losses, indicating a team that can create chances but also one that is vulnerable at the back. [26] This defensive susceptibility is why a Puebla goal is anticipated, making 'Both Teams to Score' a likely outcome. Puebla's situation is dire. They are on a significant losing streak in competitive fixtures and have consistently failed to secure points on the road. [3, 15] Traveling to New York for a Leagues Cup match presents a monumental task for a team low on confidence. Tactically, their best hope lies in a disciplined defensive performance and capitalizing on rare counter-attacking opportunities through players like Lucas Cavallini. [15] However, NYCFC's superior quality and home-field advantage are expected to be the deciding factors. The odds of 1.45 for a home win underscore this expectation. The most probable scenario is an entertaining match where the home side's offensive pressure eventually breaks down Puebla's defense, securing a win, though likely without a clean sheet.

Key Betting Insights

Value Bets
  • New York City FC to Win and Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes. Combining a home win with a BTTS 'yes' offers better odds than a straight home win and aligns with both teams' recent tendencies to score and concede.
  • Over 2.5 Total Goals: The odds of 1.46 are low but reflect a high probability. Both teams' recent games have often featured multiple goals, making this a solid foundation for accumulators.
Risky Bets
  • Puebla to Win (Away Win): With odds of 6.60, this is a high-risk bet. It would require a major turnaround in form for Puebla and an off-day for the home side.
  • Correct Score of 2-1: While it aligns with the overall prediction, correctly predicting the exact score is inherently difficult and thus carries significant risk despite the attractive 7.0 odds.
New York City Overview

New York City FC enters this Leagues Cup fixture with inconsistent MLS form, recording two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. [26] Despite the mixed results, they possess considerable attacking talent and will benefit significantly from playing at home. [16] The team has shown they can score goals, as seen in their 3-1 win over Toronto, but have also displayed defensive frailties. [26] This match against a Liga MX opponent will be a key test of their capabilities in a tournament setting. [30]

Tactical Notes

NYCFC is expected to employ a possession-based style, looking to control the midfield and build attacks from the back. Playing at Yankee Stadium, they will likely press high to disrupt Puebla's rhythm. The recent form of players like Andres Perea, who has been scoring, and Maxi Moralez, who provides assists, will be crucial. [17] The key will be converting their home advantage and possession into clear-cut chances while remaining organized defensively to handle Puebla's counter-attacks.

Key Players

Andres PereaMaxi MoralezMatt FreeseJulián Fernández

Injuries

Maxi MoralezLeg injury, expected back early August 2024
Kevin O'TooleLeg injury, expected back early August 2024
Tayvon GrayLeg injury, expected back early August 2024
Andres PereaLeg injury, expected back late September 2024
Birk RisaLeg injury, expected back late July 2024
Hannes WolfLeg injury, ruled out of last match
Puebla Overview

Puebla comes into this match on a dreadful run of form, having lost their last five competitive matches. [26] The Liga MX side has struggled defensively, conceding goals consistently. [3, 5] Their last outing was a 2-1 defeat to Mazatlan. [5] As the away team in a cross-border competition, they face a significant challenge to turn their fortunes around against an MLS side on their home turf. [15]

Tactical Notes

Given their recent poor form and status as the away team, Puebla will likely adopt a cautious and defensive strategy. Their game plan will probably revolve around staying compact, absorbing pressure, and trying to hit NYCFC on the counter-attack. [32] Forward Lucas Cavallini is a key figure who will be expected to lead the line and provide a physical presence upfront. [15] They will need to be exceptionally disciplined at the back to have a chance of securing a positive result.

Key Players

Lucas CavalliniEdgar Guerra
Last 5 Matches - New York City
19
LMazatlan
1-22025-07-19
12
WPuebla
3-22025-07-12
02
LClub America
1-22025-07-02
18
WPuebla
1-02025-04-18
16
LGuadalajara
0-12025-04-16
Last 5 Matches - Puebla
20
DSporting Kansas City
1-12025-07-20
17
WOrlando City
2-12025-07-17
12
LCharlotte
0-22025-07-12
03
LNew York City
1-32025-07-03
28
LCF Montreal
0-12025-06-28

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