AI Match Analysis & Predictions

Portugal Super CupThursday, July 31, 2025 at 7:45 PM UTC19:45
SPO

Sporting Clube de Portugal

Win Probability: 35%
Thursday, July 31, 2025 at 7:45 PM UTC
1-1
AI Prediction
Draw
High confidence
BEN

Benfica

Win Probability: 40%
Head-to-Head Statistics
Sporting Clube de Portugal Wins
3
Draws
2
Benfica Wins
1
Last Meeting2025-05-25
Score1-3
ResultBenfica Win
Predictions
Bet on
1xBet
Match ResultDraw
Medium3.4
Correct Score1-1
Low6.5
Both Teams To ScoreYes
High1.65
Total GoalsUnder 2.5 Goals
Medium1.94
AI Match Analysis

This clash for the Supertaça presents a fascinating tactical battle to kick off the Portuguese season. Sporting's confidence will be high after securing both the league and cup last season, a campaign in which they consistently had Benfica's number. However, the dynamics have shifted dramatically with the departure of Viktor Gyökeres, whose goals and physical presence were central to their success. Manager Rui Borges faces an immediate test, not only in restructuring his attack but also in solving a significant problem at left wing-back, where the suspended Matheus Reis and the potentially injured Maxi Araújo leave a gaping hole for Benfica to exploit. On the other side, Benfica and Roger Schmidt are under pressure to reclaim bragging rights and start the season on a positive note. Their shorter summer break could be a factor, but they benefit from a more stable squad situation entering this match. While losing the individual brilliance of Ángel Di María is a blow, the core of the team remains intact. Their established high-pressing 4-2-3-1 system is likely to directly target Sporting's makeshift left side. The duel between Benfica's press and Sporting's build-up from the back will be a critical factor. The betting markets lean slightly towards Benfica, but a derby of this magnitude, especially a final, often defies form and expectations. Given Sporting's personnel issues balanced against their recent derby dominance and home advantage, a stalemate is the most logical conclusion. Both teams possess enough quality to score, but a decisive breakthrough may prove elusive in this high-stakes opener.

Key Betting Insights

Value Bets
  • A Draw at 3.4 odds represents significant value in a historically tight derby that often sees the teams cancel each other out, especially in a season-opening final.
  • Sporting CP Double Chance (1X) at 1.53 is appealing, given their strong recent head-to-head record against Benfica, winning three and drawing one of the last five encounters.
Risky Bets
  • A Sporting CP win at 2.77 is a risky proposition considering the departure of their top scorer Viktor Gyökeres and the significant defensive personnel issues they face.
  • A correct score of 2-1 to Benfica, priced at 9.0, is a high-risk, high-reward punt for those banking on Benfica to capitalize on Sporting's weaknesses.
Sporting Clube de Portugal Overview

Sporting enters the new season after a triumphant 'dobradinha' (league and cup double), boasting a strong recent head-to-head record against their Lisbon rivals. However, their preparations for this Supertaça final have been complicated by the sale of star striker Viktor Gyökeres to Arsenal, a monumental loss for their attack. Compounding their issues, they face a potential crisis at left wing-back with Matheus Reis suspended and his likely replacement, Maxi Araújo, doubtful with an injury.

Tactical Notes

The team is expected to maintain its successful 3-4-3 formation. The biggest tactical puzzle will be compensating for the absence of a natural left wing-back, which could force an improvised solution against their fiercest rival. Offensively, the creative burden will now fall heavily on Pedro 'Pote' Gonçalves and wingers like Marcus Edwards and Trincão to generate goals in the post-Gyökeres era. Their solid defensive structure, marshalled by Inácio and Diomandé, will be key to containing Benfica's attack.

Key Players

Pedro GonçalvesMorten HjulmandGonçalo InácioOusmane Diomandé

Injuries

Maxi AraújoDoubtful
Nuno SantosInjured
Daniel BragançaInjured
Benfica Overview

Benfica will be desperate to start the season with a trophy and exact revenge for their defeat to Sporting in last season's Taça de Portugal final. Their pre-season was shorter due to their participation in the FIFA Club World Cup. While they have lost the creative spark of Ángel Di María, their squad appears more settled and enters this final without any major suspension concerns. They are viewed as slight favourites by the betting markets.

Tactical Notes

Manager Roger Schmidt is anticipated to deploy his signature high-intensity 4-2-3-1 system. Benfica's game plan will likely revolve around a high press, aiming to disrupt Sporting's build-up play and exploit their uncertainty on the left flank. The performance of new attacking focal point Vangelis Pavlidis will be under scrutiny, as will the midfield control exerted by Orkun Kökçü and Fredrik Aursnes. Their ability to turn possession into clear-cut chances will determine their success.

Key Players

Vangelis PavlidisOrkun KökçüFredrik AursnesNicolás Otamendi

Injuries

Alexander BahInjured
Manu SilvaInjured
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WBenfica
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DBenfica
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LSporting Clube de Portugal
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