AI Match Analysis & Predictions
Deportivo Alaves
Sevilla
Our analysis points towards a stalemate at the Estadio de Mendizorroza. Deportivo Alaves have proven to be a formidable opponent on their home turf, and their aggressive, high-press style could trouble a Sevilla side weakened by numerous injuries. The provided data shows Alaves holding a slight edge in recent head-to-head wins (3 to 2 in the last 6). However, Sevilla's recent form is superior, highlighted by an impressive 4-0 league win. The return of suspended forwards Isaac Romero and Peque will provide a significant boost to their attack. The key dynamic will be whether Alaves' intensity can overwhelm Sevilla's quality and experience. The historical data strongly supports a 'Both Teams to Score' prediction; all of the last five encounters have seen goals from both sides. [2] Despite this, the betting odds lean heavily towards 'Under 2.5 goals', indicating that the market expects a tense cup atmosphere to suppress scoring. We reconcile these conflicting points by predicting a 1-1 draw. This result satisfies the 'BTTS' trend while staying under the 2.5 goal line. At odds of 3.20, the draw offers good value in a match that appears too close to call for either side.
Key Betting Insights
Value Bets
- Both Teams to Score: Yes at 1.95. The last five head-to-head meetings have seen both teams find the net. [2] Given Alaves' home strength and Sevilla's recent scoring form coupled with defensive injuries, this seems a likely outcome with favorable odds.
- Draw at 3.20. The teams are evenly matched, as suggested by the close betting odds and recent H2H history. A draw in regular time is a very plausible outcome for this cup tie.
Risky Bets
- Correct Score 1-1 at 5.0. While it aligns with the overall prediction of a tight draw where both teams score, predicting the exact score is always a high-risk, high-reward venture.
- Deportivo Alaves Home Win at 2.42. Although they are slight favorites and play at home, Sevilla's improved form and returning players make a home win far from a certainty.
Deportivo Alaves enters this Copa del Rey tie with inconsistent form, as reflected in their recent results (LWWLL). They showed resilience in a narrow 2-1 loss to Real Madrid but have struggled for consistency. In the Copa del Rey, however, they have been convincing, scoring freely in wins against lower-league opposition. Playing at their home ground, Mendizorroza, is a significant advantage, where they are known to be a tough opponent. Their recent head-to-head record against Sevilla is competitive, suggesting they have the capability to challenge their more decorated opponents.
Tactical Notes
Alaves, under coach Eduardo Coudet, often employs a high-energy, proactive pressing system. Expect them to be aggressive, especially at home, looking to force errors and create chances through quick transitions. Their wing play is crucial to their attacking strategy. Key forward Carlos Vicente, who scored against Real Madrid recently and has been prolific in the cup, will be pivotal. Defensively, they will need to be organized to contain a Sevilla side that has found its scoring touch.
Key Players
Injuries
Sevilla comes into this match on an upward trajectory, having secured two wins and a draw in their last three outings, including a dominant 4-0 victory over Real Oviedo. [2] Their overall recent form is WDWLL. Despite a lengthy injury list, they possess greater squad depth than their opponents. Historically, their encounters with Alaves have been tight, high-scoring affairs. Forwards Peque and Isaac Romero return from suspension, which will significantly boost their attacking options for this cup tie. [2]
Tactical Notes
Sevilla will likely look to control possession and dictate the tempo of the game. With the return of Isaac Romero and Peque, their attack will have more dynamism. They have been potent offensively, scoring eight goals in their last three matches. However, they face a significant injury crisis, particularly in defense, which could make them vulnerable to Alaves' aggressive pressing and counter-attacks. Their ability to manage the game and exploit moments of quality will be key.