AI Match Analysis & Predictions

Germany. BundesligaSaturday, February 21, 2026 at 5:30 PM UTC17:30
RAS

RasenBallsport Leipzig

Win Probability: 45%
Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 5:30 PM UTC
2-1
AI Prediction
RasenBallsport Leipzig Win
High confidence
BOR

Borussia Dortmund

Win Probability: 35%
Head-to-Head Statistics
RasenBallsport Leipzig Wins
4
Draws
1
Borussia Dortmund Wins
1
Last Meeting2025-10-04
Score1-1
ResultDraw
Predictions
Match ResultRasenBallsport Leipzig Win
Medium2.316
Correct Score2-1
Low9.0
Both Teams To ScoreYes
High1.39
Total GoalsOver 2.5 Goals
High1.42
AI Match Analysis

The analysis points towards a home victory for RasenBallsport Leipzig, primarily influenced by their strong record against Borussia Dortmund at the Red Bull Arena and the potential for visitor fatigue. Dortmund's schedule, which includes a Champions League match against Atalanta just days before this crucial league game, could stretch their squad and impact their energy levels. In contrast, Leipzig has had a full week to prepare. Offensively, both teams are among the best in the league. Dortmund's recent form of five straight Bundesliga wins is formidable, and they have been particularly strong on the road. However, Leipzig's motivation is exceptionally high, as they are chasing a top-four spot. The head-to-head record shows that Leipzig has won four of the last six encounters between these sides at this venue across all competitions. Given the attacking prowess on display from both teams, a high number of goals is anticipated, with both teams likely to find the back of the net. The betting markets reflect this, with short odds on 'Over 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS'. Ultimately, the combination of home advantage, greater preparation time, and a pressing need for points gives Leipzig a narrow edge in what should be a captivating contest.

Key Betting Insights

Value Bets
  • RasenBallsport Leipzig to win: The odds for a home win seem generous given Leipzig's strong historical performance against Dortmund at the Red Bull Arena and Dortmund's potential fatigue from their midweek Champions League match.
  • Over 3.5 goals: With both teams possessing formidable attacks and a history of high-scoring encounters, the odds for over 3.5 goals offer good value.
Risky Bets
  • Correct Score of 2-1: While plausible, predicting the exact score in a match between two high-quality attacking teams is inherently difficult and therefore carries significant risk.
  • Borussia Dortmund +0.5 Asian Handicap: Despite Dortmund's excellent form, Leipzig's strength at home makes this a risky proposition. A draw is a very possible outcome, but a home win is equally likely.
RasenBallsport Leipzig Overview

RasenBallsport Leipzig enters this crucial Bundesliga clash in inconsistent form, as reflected by their recent results which include a draw, a loss, and a win in their last three domestic outings. Currently sitting just outside the top Champions League spots, the pressure is on to secure a victory at home. Historically, they have a strong record at the Red Bull Arena against Dortmund. Their attack is potent, ranking among the league's best in goals scored, but their defense has shown vulnerabilities.

Tactical Notes

Leipzig will likely employ their signature high-pressing, aggressive style of play, aiming to disrupt Dortmund's build-up and force turnovers in dangerous areas. Expect quick vertical passes and fluid movement from their attacking midfielders and forwards. The width provided by wing-backs like David Raum will be crucial in stretching the Dortmund defense and creating goal-scoring opportunities. Set-pieces could also be a key weapon for the home side.

Key Players

Christoph BaumgartnerDavid RaumLoïs OpendaXavi Simons

Injuries

Forzan Assan OuedraogoKnee injury, expected to be out until late March 2026.
Viggo GebelCruciate ligament injury, out for the season.
S. SuleimanAnkle injury with an unknown return date.
Castello LukebaFitness issues, but has recently returned to training.
Borussia Dortmund Overview

Borussia Dortmund comes into this fixture in scintillating domestic form, having won their last five Bundesliga matches. This strong run has solidified their position near the top of the table. Their away form has been particularly impressive this season, with only one defeat on the road. Dortmund boasts a powerful attack and a solid defense, ranking second in the league for both goals scored and goals conceded. However, they face a quick turnaround after a midweek Champions League fixture against Atalanta, which could test their squad depth and fitness.

Tactical Notes

Dortmund will look to control possession and build attacks from the back, utilizing the pace and skill of their wingers and the clinical finishing of their strikers. They are dangerous on the counter-attack, capable of transitioning from defense to offense in a matter of seconds. Midfield control will be a key battleground, as they'll need to bypass Leipzig's intense press. The fitness of key players following their European engagement will be a significant factor in their performance.

Key Players

Serhou GuirassyJulian RyersonNico SchlotterbeckJulian Brandt

Injuries

Niklas SüleThigh injury, expected back in early March 2026.
Emre CanGroin injury, expected back in early March 2026.
Filippo ManeThigh injury, expected back in early March 2026.
Salih ÖzcanAchilles tendon injury, expected back in early March 2026.
Last 5 Matches - RasenBallsport Leipzig
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DVfL Wolfsburg
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LBayern Munich
0-22026-02-11
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W1. Koln
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L1. FSV Mainz 05
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DSt. Pauli
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Last 5 Matches - Borussia Dortmund
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W1. FSV Mainz 05
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WVfL Wolfsburg
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W1. Heidenheim
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LInternazionale Milano
0-22026-01-28
24
WUnion Berlin
3-02026-01-24

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